Fluid Mechanics and climate dynamics: observations, simulations and (maybe) predictions

Michael Ghil, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris and University of California, Los Angeles

The scientific problems posed by Earth's fluid envelopes—its atmosphere, oceans, snow and ice—are central to major socio-economic and political concerns of the 21st century. It is natural, therefore, that a certain impatience should prevail in attempting to solve these problems. In this lecture, I'll review some of the collective efforts at assessing and, in a way, predicting climate change. Next, I'll illustrate the problems associated with the fluid envelopes within the climate system, by studying oceanic variability and its interaction with the atmosphere and sea ice. Finally, I'll try to outline a way of assessing, and possibly reducing, the uncertainties associated with climate prediction on the time scale of decades-to-centuries.

Presentation in PDF: 5.4 MB.
Higher resolution/PowerPoint available on request from euler2007 (with the obvious spam precautions) AT gmail DOT com.